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???metadata.dc.description.abstract???: 中美关系是21世纪重要性上升最快的双边关系，而台湾问题在错综交织的中美利益中处于核心地位，并始终牵动着中美关系的发展。在美国，公众的对外舆论态度对于政策制定者有着不可忽视的影响。因此，研究美国公众的涉台舆论，把握美国普通民众涉台民意脉搏，对于更好地处理台湾问题、促进中美关系发展有十分积极的意义。在对外政策舆论的研究中，鲜有学者对美国涉台舆论进行系统的整理和分析，已有的相关研究也较为零散，并且多停留在描述性的层面，对美国涉台舆论解释因素的挖掘与探讨大有研究空间。
笔者通过对美国芝加哥全球事务委员会（CCGA）1974年到2010年民调数据的整理和分析，勾勒出了近40年来美国公众涉台舆论态度的稳定与变化，以逻辑回归模型分析了影响美国公众涉台舆论态度的解释因素。笔者发现，美国公众感情上更偏爱台湾，但台湾在美国人心中的重要性并不高，且绝大多数美国民众不愿介入台海争端，武力保护台湾安全。美国公众在台湾问题上的态度可以用意识形态、国际政治态度和党派这三个基本政治立场来解释；感情印象在部分年份会左右美国涉台舆论，但解释效力并不高；而经济态度则无法对美国公众涉台舆论提供很好的解释。美国公众的涉台舆论是较为稳定的、理性的和客观的，对台湾问题的重视程度呈现下降趋势，流露出的“弃台”倾向值得我们重视。
The Taiwan issue is the core concern for both Chinese and US governments. However, among all the research on foreign policy attitudes, few scholars have focused on American public opinion toward Taiwan issues, and related discussions still remain at the descriptive level.
After analyzing the public opinion surveys conducted from the CCGA, we find that in spite of the American inclination to favor Taiwan over China, the majority of Americans oppose sending troops to defend Taiwan if it were invaded by mainland China. The empirical analysis on attitude structure with logistic regression indicates a possible causal link from ideology, political party, hawk-dove continuum in the security area to the attitudes toward Taiwan issues. The image of China can sometimes predict Americans’ attitudes toward Taiwan but the causation is weak. There is no convincing evidence that attitudes toward Taiwan issues differ between free traders and trade protectionists.
The American general public opinion on Taiwan issues may echo the growing chorus calling for the withdrawal of support for Taiwan. An increasing tendency on opposing protecting Taiwan by force and an indifferent attitude on Taiwan issues may affect the way that the US will respond to the potential crisis of cross-strait relations.
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